@Article{RochaJúniorSiCoGoPiHe:2020:BiAsDr,
author = "Rocha J{\'u}nior, Rodrigo Lins da and Silva, Fabr{\'{\i}}cio
Daniel dos Santos and Costa, Rafaela Lisboa and Gomes,
Heliof{\'a}bio Barros and Pinto, David Duarte Cavalcante and
Herdies, Dirceu Lu{\'{\i}}s",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)} and {Universidade Federal
de Alagoas (UFAL)} and {Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)}
and {Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)} and {Universidade
Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Bivariate assessment of drought return periods and frequency in
brazilian northeast using joint distribution by copula method",
journal = "Geosciences (Switzerland)",
year = "2020",
volume = "10",
number = "4",
pages = "e135",
month = "apr.",
keywords = "meteorological drought analysis, Standardized Precipitation Index
(SPI), archimedean copulas, probability distributions.",
abstract = "The Northeast region of Brazil (NRB) is the most populous semiarid
area in the world and is extremely susceptible to droughts. The
severity and duration of these droughts depend on several factors,
and they do not necessarily follow the same behavior. The aim of
this work is to evaluate the frequency of droughts in the NRB and
calculate the return period of each drought event using the copula
technique, which integrates the duration and severity of the
drought in the NRB in a joint bivariate distribution. Monthly
precipitation data from 96 meteorological stations spatially
distributed in the NRB, ranging from 1961 to 2017, are used. The
copula technique is applied to the Standardized Precipitation
Index (SPI) on the three-month time scale, testing three families
of Archimedean copula functions (Gumbel-Hougaard, Clayton and
Frank) to reveal which model is best suited for the data.
Averagely, the most frequent droughts observed in the NRB are
concentrated in the northern sector of the region, with an
observed duration varying from three and a half to five and a half
months. However, the eastern NRB experiences the most severe
droughts, lasting for 14 to 24 months. The probability
distributions that perform better in modeling the series of
severity and duration of droughts are exponential, normal and
lognormal. The observed severity and duration values show that,
for average values, the return period across the region is
approximately 24 months. Still in this regard, the southernmost
tip of the NRB stands out for having a return period of over 35
months. Regarding maximum observed values of severity and
duration, the NRB eastern strip has the longest return period (>60
months), mainly in the southeastern portion where a return period
above 90 months was observed. The northern NRB shows the shortest
return period (~45 months), indicating that it is the NRB sector
with the highest frequency of intense droughts. These results
provide useful information for drought risk management in the
NRB.",
doi = "10.3390/geosciences10040135",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10040135",
issn = "2076-3263",
language = "en",
targetfile = "geosciences-10-00135.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}